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Registro completo
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Biblioteca (s) : |
INIA Las Brujas. |
Fecha : |
23/11/2016 |
Actualizado : |
10/02/2020 |
Autor : |
FERNANDES, K.; BAETHGEN, W.; BERNARDES, S.; DEFRIES, R.; DEWITT, D.; GODDARD, L.; LAVADO, W.; LEE, D. E.; PADOCH, CH.; PINEDO-VASQUEZ, M.; URIARTE, M. |
Afiliación : |
KATIA FERNANDES, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; WALTER BAETHGEN, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; SERGIO BERNARDES, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, USA; RUTH DEFRIES, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, USA; DAVID DEWITT, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; LISA GODDARD, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; WALDO LAVADO, Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia, Perú; DONG EUN LEE, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, USA; CHRISTINE PADOCH, Institute of Economic Botany, New York Botanical Garden, USA; MIGUEL PINEDO-VASQUEZ, Center for Environmental Research and Conservation, Columbia University, USA; MARÍA URIARTE, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, USA. |
Título : |
North tropical atlantic influence on western Amazon fire season variability. |
Fecha de publicación : |
2011 |
Fuente / Imprenta : |
Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, v. 38, no. 12, L12701. |
DOI : |
10.1029/2011GL047392 |
Idioma : |
Inglés |
Notas : |
Publication History: Issue online 17 June 2011 // Version of record online 17 June 2011 // Manuscript Accepted 2 May 2011 // Manuscript Revised 26 April 2011 //
Manuscript Received 7 March 2011 |
Contenido : |
ABSTRACT.
The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active-Fires (AF) during 2000?2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July-August-September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA-SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins.
@ 2011 by the American Geophysical Union MenosABSTRACT.
The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active-Fires (AF) during 2000?2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July-August-September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA-SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins.
@ 2011 by the American Geophysic... Presentar Todo |
Palabras claves : |
DROUGHT; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS; NATURAL HAZARDS. |
Asunto categoría : |
-- |
Marc : |
LEADER 02521naa a2200301 a 4500 001 1056120 005 2020-02-10 008 2011 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d 024 7 $a10.1029/2011GL047392$2DOI 100 1 $aFERNANDES, K. 245 $aNorth tropical atlantic influence on western Amazon fire season variability.$h[electronic resource] 260 $c2011 500 $aPublication History: Issue online 17 June 2011 // Version of record online 17 June 2011 // Manuscript Accepted 2 May 2011 // Manuscript Revised 26 April 2011 // Manuscript Received 7 March 2011 520 $aABSTRACT. The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active-Fires (AF) during 2000?2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July-August-September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA-SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins. @ 2011 by the American Geophysical Union 653 $aDROUGHT 653 $aGLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS 653 $aNATURAL HAZARDS 700 1 $aBAETHGEN, W. 700 1 $aBERNARDES, S. 700 1 $aDEFRIES, R. 700 1 $aDEWITT, D. 700 1 $aGODDARD, L. 700 1 $aLAVADO, W. 700 1 $aLEE, D. E. 700 1 $aPADOCH, CH. 700 1 $aPINEDO-VASQUEZ, M. 700 1 $aURIARTE, M. 773 $tGeophysical Research Letters, 2011$gv. 38, no. 12, L12701.
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